Local Scottish Conservatives' plans for the Scottish Parliamentary election on 5 May appear to be in some disarray following the surprise withdrawal on 3 March of their candidate in the Edinburgh Northern and Leith constituency.
Jamie Halcro-Johnston, 36, will instead contest a seat in Orkney, where Spurtle understands the Tories had struggled to field a candidate. Mr Halcro-Johnston's family keep sheep and a dairy in the area, and his father was a Council Convener.
No replacement has yet been announced for Edinburgh Northern and Leith, and Conservative HQ in Northumberland Street has yet to clarify who – if anyone – the party will put forward for the Spurtle hustings on 23 March (see Issue 192 or http://bit.ly/gmkNVH).
The redrawn Edinburgh Northern and Leith constituency comprises about 85 percent of the former Edinburgh North and Leith seat and roughly 15 percent of Edinburgh East and Musselburgh. Based on the last Holyrood election results of 2007, pundits extrapolate the following 'notional' shares of the vote within the new boundary today: Labour (35.2%), Scottish Nationalists (27.9%), Liberal-Democrats (26.8%), Conservatives (10.1%). Political observers suggest the Conservatives' problem here is mobilsing support outwith Trinity, when those sympathetic to their cause elsewhere vote tactically for the Liberal-Democrats.
In Orkney, by comparison, in the last Scottish Parliamentary election the Conservatives level-pegged with the SNP on 18.9 per cent of the vote each, second-equal behind the Liberal-Democrats on 47.5 per cent.
So far five candidates/parties have announced their intention to attend the hustings in Broughton St Mary's Parish Church: Malcolm Chisholm (Labour), Dan Farthing (Liberal-Democrat), Margo MacDonald (Independent), the Scottish Greens (a list candidate to be announced) and Shirley-Anne Somerville (Scottish Nationalist). Any others who have yet to declare their candidatures are urged to contact the Spurtle as soon as possible.