By-election results were announced today at 12.30pm.
- Alasdair Rankin (SNP): 1,368
- Iain McGill (Con): 1,264
In the fifth and final round, 287 votes transferred to the SNP from 3rd-placed Labour beat 158 votes transferred to the Conservatives, and secured Alasdair Rankin the result. It was the first time he had been ahead throughout.
This election was run 'effectively' under the Alternative Vote preferential system (see 'Better Nation' link below). In the first round, after 1st preference votes had been counted, none of the candidates had reached the necessary quota. In last place, the Lib-Dems were eliminated. The figures at this stage stacked up as follows:
- Iain McGill (Con): 837
- Alasdair Rankin (SNP): 797
- Karen Doran (Lab): 682
- Melanie Main (Green) 494
- John Carson (Indep) 394
- Alastair Hodgson (Lib-Dem) 251
In the second round, Lib-Dem votes transferred mainly to the Conservatives and Greens, suggesting a significant lack of pragmatic loyalty to SNP coalition partners. John Carson (Indep) was eliminated.
- Iain McGill (Con) 904
- Alasdair Rankin (SNP) 825
- Karen Doran (Lab) 716
- Melanie Main (Green) 576
- John Carson (Indep) 402
In the third round, Independent votes transferred mainly to the Conservatives, despite the SNP being the only anti-tram party still left in the running. Melanie Main (Green) was eliminated:
- Iain McGill (Con) 1,043
- Alasdair Rankin (SNP) 893
- Karen Doran (Lab) 745
- Melanie Main (Green) 635
In the fourth round, most Green votes transferred to Labour (223) and the anti-tram SNP (191). Karen Doran was eliminated. The contest was now nail-bitingly close, and dependent upon where the last transferred votes would go. Whom did Labour voters dislike least, the SNP or the Tories?
- Ian McGill (Con) 1,110
- Alasdair Rankin (SNP) 1081
- Karen Doran (Lab) 968
With the turnout a disappointing 23.4% (3,466 votes out of a possible 14,810), Tory candidate Iain McGill at one point suggested – tongue-in-cheek – that more people were present at the count than had turned up at the ballot box. Activists of all parties questioned the wisdom of holding the election at the first available date in August.
Spurtle's innovative psephological model was not altogether successful in predicting the outcome of voters' 1st preferences. For a more informed account of the voting technicalities at stake, see James Mackenzie's article at Better Nation.